Ten questions Dons must answer after another finals fail… and who should be on their $2m hit list.
Essendon fans don’t need to be reminded how long it’s been since their club last won a final.
It’s been a long two decades for one of the biggest and proudest AFL clubs in the land — and one of the ‘big four’ Victorian powerhouses.
Well, in recent times, they’ve watched Richmond go through a golden period, Collingwood consistently remain in flag contention and Carlton rise from a lengthy rebuild to charge back towards the pointy end of the ladder.
The Bombers have meanwhile languished in AFL purgatory, at times limping into the finals but having no influence, not helped by maybe the biggest controversy in league history in the early 2010s that also doesn’t need reminding.
And though they kickstarted the Brad Scott era on such a positive note — an era that does feel like a genuine turning point for the club amid an overhaul of several other positions of power — this season ended in such brutal fashion.
Sitting fifth after Round 17 and on track to feature in September, Essendon would drop five of its last seven games — including losses to GWS and Collingwood by a combined 196 points in the last two rounds — while the two narrow wins during that span came against bottom-two sides North Melbourne and West Coast.
It’s clear that, despite promise, the Bombers still have a ways to go before they shoot back up the ladder and contend again.
Scott himself was brutally honest about the task ahead after the team’s Round 24 loss to the Magpies, forecasting “extraordinary measures” to improve “right across the board” including the playing list and footy department.
Veteran journalist Caroline Wilson has already flagged “big changes”, with the departure of experienced assistant and current VFL coach Leigh Tudor the first domino to fall.
Current head of performance Dan McPherson is the favourite to replace outgoing footy boss Josh Mahoney, while long-time list manager Adrian Dodoro will remain in his position for 2024.
So what other moves can be made? And how do Essendon move closer towards getting back to being one of the competition heavyweights under Scott’s lead?
There needs to be a full-scale review of every aspect of the club to identity where things went wrong – and more specifically, where they need to improve.
You can take the glass half full or glass half empty approach to Essendon’s 2023 season, and some may be wondering why the club fell away so badly late in the piece.
But the view that the Bombers were a genuine finals caliber side in the first half of the year may have been a misnomer, with the club still statistically among the worst teams in contest and defence.
In stats of the ‘core four’ areas shown on Fox Footy’s TheFirst Crack, while the Bombers ranked fifth in the competition in ball movement, they sat 15th in defending ball movement, 16th in clearance differential and 16th in post-clearance contested possession differential.
Put simply, they weren’t hard enough to play against, but were damaging themselves with ball in hand.
Combine the above numbers and Essendon ranked just 16th overall in the ‘core four’ stats, with only North Melbourne and West Coast rated worse.
Digging deeper into their defence, they only slightly improved from their bottom four 2022 season under Ben Rutten — that yielded four fewer wins — jumping from 16th to 15th in points against, 17th to 15th in defensive ball movement and 18th to 17th in pressure.
The bottom-two pressure rating is proof that, while your mind immediately goes specifically to the back six when it comes to defence, so much is predicated on intent and effort all over the ground.
Of course, it didn’t help that Jordan Ridley – arguably their most important defender – missed a key chunk of the back end of the season to leave a void to an already undersized and undermanned back group.
And as their lowly-ranked contest and clearance numbers suggest, their shaky defence was too often put under too much pressure.
North Melbourne legend David King on TheFirst Crack said he was “concerned” about their defensive system, labelling it a “massive problem” the Bombers must correct.
“Without the footy they’re 15th again. This is strategy,” the dual premiership Kangaroo said.
“I won’t hear the wash and the spin that others want to go with, because it was the same when they were sitting fifth on the table: Really good with the ball, but ordinary without it.
“You can’t be ordinary without it and expect to be a finals team and pushing up the ladder. If that stays the same next year, it’ll be another wasted 12 months like this was.”
THE SCOTT EFFECT
Scott candidly revealed in his final presser of the year that the bar would be raised this summer in his bid to cultivate a harder-working culture.
“This is the first opportunity I’ve got to drive an off-season … as to what that looks like and the expectations that we have, because the observations of the last nine to 12 months is nowhere near where it needs to be. So we’ll get that right,” the Bombers coach said.
And as put by St Kilda champion Nick Dal Santo on Fox Footy Live, “the fear of god should be put through that group.”
While the Bombers coach has clearly already had a profound impact on the group, he’ll now embark on his first full off-season since taking over the reins late last year.
Not only does that give him a greater opportunity to mould the list and make it more his (though more on that later), but perhaps even more importantly, fully stamp his discipline on the environment.
Improving defensively will clearly be a major focus, even though it already was, according to Zach Merrett, with the skipper revealing 90 per cent of the club’s focus last off-season was on defence.
It’s therefore encouraging to think how it could further develop with even more time and energy.
One of the most respected and hard taskmasters in football, the Bombers should otherwise take natural steps forward under Scott’s guidance, with the reinforcement and tightening of structures, and, as he said himself, clearer expectations of the level required to be an elite team.
It’s something Scott, a two-time premiership player under Leigh Matthews at Brisbane during one of the most dominant eras from a side in VFL/AFL history, knows a thing or two about.
Plus don’t forget, this is a coach who in the 2010s took a North Melbourne side that were no world beaters to two preliminary finals.
Caroline Wilson provided further insights into how “shocked” Scott was by the standards when he first arrived at Tullamarine, suggesting “there will be no footy trip” this off-season.
Wilson said the club’s leaders will also drive harder standards and that the likes of Jake Stringer, who’s had a couple of down seasons due to injury and form issues, would be challenged to get back to his best.
Beyond Stringer, Sam Draper should be challenged to become a genuinely elite ruckman of the competition. Does he have that in him, or is he just a glorified cult hero?
Meanwhile, can Andy McGrath follow Merrett’s lead and become a more robust leader? And can he get to an All-Australian caliber level he once promised as a No. 1 draft pick?
McGrath aside, who else can emerge as a strong leader?
Can Jordan Ridley get close to the level of the likes of Tom Stewart and James Sicily?
Can Jye Caldwell live up to his potential after costing the Bombers Pick 29 in a trade?
Granted his year was disrupted by injury, but can Peter Wright prove 2022 was no flash in the pan?
Is Dylan Shiel prepared to dig in and remain a consistent servant in his later years and provide invaluable leadership? Much like Travis Boak has for Port Adelaide.
Is Darcy Parish capable of contending for a Brownlow?
Is Ben Hobbs ready to stand up as a mainstay midfielder?
Is Ben Hobbs ready to stand up as a mainstay midfielder?
And can 2020 first-round draftees Nik Cox, Archie Perkins, Zach Reid become reliable senior players?
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