Two truths and a lie for Florida Football after four games.

 

Four games into the season, Florida Football is 2-2 on the 2024 campaign and have taken the bye week to regroup and refocus before winding back up next week against UCF.

We have written plenty of critiques of Billy Napier, and there are plenty of reasons why our optimism is near the bottom. We also do our best to stay objective and maintain a sense of realism.

It’s with that in mind that we have truths and a lie for Florida heading into October.

Truth: There Is Talent On This Roster

There are plenty of players on offense who, in a vacuum, we still really like. Graham Mertz is who he is at this point, and we believe DJ Lagwat provides the higher ceiling.

At running back, Treyaun Webb, Ja’Kobi Jackson, and Jadan Baugh all run hard and would be all capable backs if they had to take the load from Montrell Johnson.

Tre Wilson, Elijhah Badger, and Aidan Mizell could make a dangerous trio at receiver and Florida could even go five wide and have Chimere Dike and Tank Hawkins all on the field at once.

The only genuine weak points from a talent perspective are at guard and tight end, because Florida has Devon Manuel waiting in the wings who could rotate in at tackle.

On defense, the defensive end is a genuine issue. As we highlighted this week, Florida had talent at the position but it opted to transfer away.

The linebackers have been great, and even the corners have been adequate. The safety play has been abysmal, but from a pure talent perspective, Florida still has a guy like Trikweze Bridges, who could rotate in more and get decent play out of it. Even true freshman Gregory Smith feels like someone who would be willing to fly downhill and hit someone.

The moral is that there is a reason Florida had the 12th-ranked talent composite from 247 heading into the season, and the cupboard is not as bare as some may want to believe.

Truth: Florida Can Make A Bowl Game

Florida needs four more wins in order to make a bowl game. There is a real possibility Florida won’t win any more games and even if Florida goes 6-6, we don’t believe that’s good enough to justify keeping Napier around.

So don’t get it twisted that making a bowl is an accomplishment that will fix the ills of this squad.

But there is value from a public perception standpoint and from a salvageable dumpster fire standpoint if Florida can make it to a bowl game rather than miss out for the second straight season.

If you squint hard enough, Florida is favored in the ESPN FPI Index against Kentucky and FSU and still has a 40% shot against UCF and LSU.

Three of those four are at home. Win those four, and there is a pathway to 6-6 and a bowl game.

Lie: Billy Napier Will Alter His Process

Back in July at SEC Media Days, Napier once again repeated his trope about being consumed with the process.

He stated at the time:

“I think you’ve got to get consumed with the process, not the outcome, to some degree, and the thing that I would say with conviction is we have been very close.”

We countered that the hamster is consumed with their process too, that doesn’t mean they are getting anywhere.

As highlighted above, Florida has the skill players where the Gators could play a four-wide receiver set, with either a running back or tight end mixed in as the fifth player that would cause matchup nightmares for opposing defenses.

Just imagine a bunch set with Wilson, Dike, and Mizell on one side with Badger on the other and a bruising back like Webb or Baugh in the backfield. If teams spread out and leave a light box, Webb or Baugh would cause havoc running into that scenario. If teams opt to bring a safety up to load the box, one missed assignment on a mesh route, rub route, or even just a slant could go for six.

But Napier has yet to call a single play this year with no tight ends on the field, and about 1/3 of the time, he is reliant on two tight ends.

On defense, Napier stated this week that he didn’t believe Florida’s scheme is the issue. Never mind that Florida constantly plays two safeties 20 yards off the line of scrimmage, begging teams to complete passes underneath with zero fear of a safety driving down on the ball.

The reality is that Napier is going to do what worked at Louisiana, and rather than alter his process to fit his current scenario, he is going to continue to trot out an unimaginative offense and a defense that constantly looks lost.